Key Factors likely to Drive Indian Stock Market ahead of Lok Sabha Election 2019

Indian Stock Market and Lok Sabha Election 2019
Indian Stock Market and Lok Sabha Election 2019



The Indian stock market has seen a decent rally ahead of Lok Sabha Election 2019. Sensex and Nifty are about to touch an all-time high, Bank Nifty already making new high every day. Next two months would be very crucial for the market. High volatility is expected in the market in the month of April and May.


With the end of today’s trading session, the financial year 2018-19 has also come to an end. The first half of the last financial year was not favorable for the Indian stock market. Markets witnessed huge selling pressure across sectors due to negative global cues, PSU Bank’s merger and poor asset quality, Liquidity crisis, Macro data, etc.


The second half of 2018-19 was encouraging for the Indian stock market. Optimism is back in the market due to the expectation of a stable government. The positive Macro data, rate cut, FII’s buying in the market, appreciation in rupee against dollar, etc. are other factors that have given pullback and a strong rally in the market.   


How Indian Stock Market behaved last month



Sensex and Nifty gained almost 7 percent in the month of March, this is one of the best months in the 2018-19 financial year. Bank Nifty also gained around 12 percent and made several high in the month of March 2019. Mid and small caps index have gained around 7 and 11 percent in the month of March 2019.


On the sectoral front, Banking and Financial services sector was the top performer. Both PSU and Pvt Banking space have shown good performance in the month of March. Other sectors which have shown good performance in last month were Realty, Energy. The indices of Auto, Media, Metal, Cement were performed negatively in the month of March



Top Gainers and Losers of Nifty 50 Stocks


Top 5 Nifty 50 Stocks Gainers of the Month
Company NameLTP  (Rs )Prev Close (Rs )Change (Rs )Change (%) 52 week H/L( Rs)
Indiabulls Hous.858.25658.9199.3530.251,397.00-575.35
Yes Bank275.1228.246.920.55404.00-146.75
IndusInd Bank1,780.001,476.70303.320.542,038.00-1,333.15
B P C L397.55330.766.8520.21454.50-238.55
St Bk of India320.75267.6553.119.84339.65-232.50
Top 5 Nifty 50 Stocks Losers of the Month
Company NameLTP  (Rs )Prev Close (Rs )Change (Rs )Change (%) 52 week H/L( Rs)
Wipro254.8280.8-26-9.26291.71-190.13
Tech Mahindra775.9825.6-49.7-6.02840.00-603.25
Hero Motocorp2,553.152,678.55-125.4-4.683,825.00-2,515.00
Maruti Suzuki6,672.556,968.50-295.95-4.259,929.00-6,317.70
Cipla528.9551.9-23-4.17678.45-483.75



Events in April likely to Drive the Indian Stock Market


Economic Calendar that can Influence Indian Stock Market


The biggest event in April for the Indian stock market is Lok Sabha election 2019, the market is expecting a stable government. The RBI monetary policy is also scheduled on the 4th of April. As the inflation is under control and IIP growth is on the lower side, market experts have expected another rate cut in April. This can be positive for the Banking and Financial service sectors, particularly in PSU banks. Below are the economic calendar of the Month







Economic Calendar
Date Event



2nd April2019 India Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Mar)



4th April 2019 India Nikkei Services PMI (Mar)




RBI Monitory Policy -CRR



5th April 2019 Foreign Exchange Reserves



11th April 2019 Lok Sabha Election 2019 voting starts



12th April 2019 Deposit and Bank loan growth YOY




IIP & CPI data March




Foreign Exchange Reserves



15th April 2019 WPI data March




The balance of Trade March data



19th April 2019 Foreign Exchange Reserves



26th April 2019 Foreign Exchange Reserves




Deposit and Bank loan growth YOY



30th April 2019 Infrastructure output YOY March




Government Budget Value Mar




Company Results

In the month of April, Q4 and the annual result will be announced by the companies. Indian stock market would react to the result. If results are not as per expectation market will definitely punish the stock which can create volatility across the sector. The companies like Infosys, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank are going to announce their Q4 results in the month of April.


Lok Sabha Election 2019

The Lok Sabha election 2019 will be held in seven phases from April 11 to May 19. The Final result will be declared on May 23rd, 2019. Out of the seven phases, the majority of the voting would be completed in April. NSE has declared a holiday on 29th April for voting in Mumbai, so that more people can take part and cast vote.

Indian stock market is expected astable government from the Lok Sabha election 2019. The exit polls may not be there during the phases of voting. Any positive development in the retention of existing and stable government can fly the market in a new high.

Global Cues

This is another factor which can create unwanted volatility in the Indian stock market. The Global market cues are positive at this moment but Investors can’t ignore the concern of global economic slowdown, delay in US-China trade talks, uncertainties in Brexit. Any point of time these issues can arise and make the market volatile.   


Conclusion

Above are the few Key factors which can influence the Indian Stock Market in the month of April. Indian stock market has already given a decent and strong rally in the last month. It is better to book some profit before the RBI monetary Policy especially in the banking sector. In April the band for Nifty would be 11330 to 11980 and Bank Nifty would be 28865 to 31500. Investors and traders should remain cautious in the coming two months and should trade with a strict stop loss.


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Happy Investing!

Finogyan Team

Disclaimer-Finogyan has taken due care and caution in compilation of data for its blog. The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Finogyan are their own and not that of the website or its management. Finogyan is not SEBI registered Advisors and advises users to check with certified and SEBI registered experts before taking any investment decision. However, Finogyan does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Finogyan especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account of the use of information provided on its website.

Key Factors likely to Drive Indian Stock Market ahead of Lok Sabha Election 2019 Key Factors likely to Drive Indian Stock Market ahead of Lok Sabha Election 2019 Reviewed by Finogyan on March 29, 2019 Rating: 5

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