Next Trigger for Indian Share Market is Union Budget 2019




Indian Share Market ended in red on the first day of July series. The market is nervous and volatile ahead of Union Budget 2019 next week. Earlier in June series, Nifty 50 touched records high on the first day and since then it's trading below 12000 levels. Indian share market desperately needs a positive trigger to trade Nifty 50 above 12000 levels. This time the positive trigger could be Union Budget 2019 on 5th July. 


Indian share market last week



On a weekly basis in Indian Share Market, Nifty 50 and Sensex gained 64.75 and 200.15 points respectively. Bank Nifty also gained 476.85 points on spot level basis during the week. On the banking front, PSU banks were major gainer on expectations of capital infusion in Union Budget 2019.


Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 index gained 204.4 and 54 points in the last week. The top gainers in Nifty Mid Caps 100 index were Dilip Buildcon, Torrent Power, Oberoi Realty. Dilip Buildcon gained the most almost up 23% in the last week. The Top gainer in Nifty Small Cap 100 index was Allahabad Bank, Suzlon Energy, Radico Khaitan, Syndicate Bank. Allahabad Bank gained 21% in the last week. In the Nifty 50 index, the top five gainers were UPL, NTPC, Axis Bank, Hindalco, and Sun Pharma. The top five losers in the Nifty 50 index were Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, Eicher Motors, Britannia, and IndusInd Bank.


Expectations from Union Budget 2019



On the 5th of July, Nirmala Sitharaman will deliver the Budget Speech in the Parliament, and every industry has got an expectation from the Budget. We have listed out few expectations from the upcoming Union Budget 2019 which can impact on the Indian Share Market.


  1. Income Tax Slab- To increase more liquidity in the hands of common/salaried people the government can lower down the Income Tax slab. The government can increase the basic exemption limit or revised the higher tax slab 10L to 20L. This can boost the sectors like consumer durables and the auto industry.
  2. Reforms in PSUs- Privatisation of PSU unit and Capital Infusion can make the public sector bank positive. PSU Banks have already become active ahead of Budget in expectation of fresh Capital Infusion. Apart from this, the government may introduce a new system and mechanism to monitor the fresh loans to be given to industry.
  3. Infra Sectors- NDA government has always given priority on the Infrastructure Sector. We can see massive spending on roads, railways, water, irrigation, and urban infrastructure. This year the Union Budget 2019 may consider re-introduction of tax-free bonds to raise capital for the infrastructure projects. This may boost investment in infra companies or PSUs companies like L&T, Ultratech Cement, BEML, etc 
  4. Reduction in STT- Securities Transaction Tax (STT) has been high in the Indian Share Market for a long time. Traders and Investors are expecting to be lower in this Union Budget 2019. Lowering of the STT will be very positive for the Indian share market. 
  5. Fiscal Deficit 3.4 per cent-Retaining the fiscal deficit 3.4 percent for 2019-20 of gross domestic product (GDP) is expected on 5th July Budget speech. 


Nifty and Bank Nifty Future ahead of Union Budget 2019

Indian Share Market-Nifty Chart,Union Budget 2019
Indian Share Market-Nifty Chart


Nifty Future Weekly Outlook - OHLC-(11703.20/11916.00/11666.60/11841.50)
Primary Trend: Volatile (Bias Sideways) – Expected Volatility 10.9035% (Range of 175 Points)
Range Bound Trend: All up Moves Initiates Profit Booking (Sale) @ 11920 whereas All Down Moves Initiates Short Covering (Buy) @ 11765
If Nifty Future Moves Above 11870 then you should Buy with 1st Target of 11965 during the day or any point during the week by Trailing the Stop Loss from 11750- 11815- 11855- 11915- 11965- 12000 FOR the Target of 12015- 12060- 12120
If Nifty Future Moves Below 11810 then you should Sell with 1st Target of 11720 during the day or any point during the week by Trailing the Stop Loss from 11925- 11875- 11830- 11775- 11710- 11675 FOR the Target of 11670- 11620- 11565
Indian Share Market-Bank Nifty Chart,Union Budget 2019
Indian Share Market-Bank Nifty Chart


Bank Nifty Future Weekly Outlook - OHLC-(30675.05/31480.00/30480.00/31267.45)
Primary Trend: Volatile (Bias Sideways) - Expected Volatility 11.2019% (Range of 485 Points)
Range Bound Trend: All up Moves Initiates Profit Booking (Sale) @ 31600, whereas All Down Moves Initiates Short Covering (Buy) @ 30925
If Bank Nifty Future Moves Above 31400 then you should Buy with 1st Target of 31815 during the day or any point during the week by Trailing the Stop Loss from 30900- 31150- 31325- 31595- 31850- 32000 FOR the Target of 32025- 32235- 32495
If Bank Nifty Future Moves Below 31125 then you should Sell with 1st Target of 30715 during the day or any point during the week by Trailing the Stop Loss from 31625- 31350- 31200- 30950- 30675- 30525 FOR the Target of 30510- 30295- 30050


Conclusion:


Nifty and Bank Nifty Future chart is indicating another volatile week. If all expectations are met then the Union Budget 2019 can be the immediate next positive trigger for Indian share market. The market can touch new high in July series but ahead of the budget market will be highly volatile. Investors and Traders can follow fundamentally strong shares in Infra, PSU, Cement and Consumer durable sectors. Traders can follow the above technical levels of Nifty and Bank Nifty future for the next week with a strict stop loss. 




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Happy Investing!


Finogyan Team


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Next Trigger for Indian Share Market is Union Budget 2019 Next Trigger for Indian Share Market is Union Budget 2019 Reviewed by Finogyan on June 30, 2019 Rating: 5

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